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How Inflation, Tariffs, and Economic Uncertainty Are Impacting Your Mortgage Renewal

How Inflation, Tariffs, and Economic Uncertainty Are Impacting Your Mortgage Renewal

Alex McFadyen
April 2, 2025

We're all feeling the effects of an unpredictable economy right now. Inflation is squeezing our budgets, tariffs are increasing the cost of essential goods, and rising interest rates are shaking up the real estate market. If you're like many homeowners, you're probably looking ahead to your mortgage renewal with more than a little anxiety—and I get it.

With all this economic uncertainty swirling around, now is the time to get clear on your mortgage options. Whether you're facing a renewal this year or planning to buy, you need to understand what you're up against—and how to take control.

Let's dive into how these forces are influencing mortgage rates, what you should consider when choosing between fixed and variable terms, and how you can negotiate a better deal instead of accepting whatever your bank offers.

The Triple Threat: Inflation, Tariffs, and Economic Uncertainty

When we talk about inflation, we're not just talking about groceries and gas. It has a direct impact on interest rates and your mortgage. As the cost of living increases, central banks raise interest rates to try to cool things down. That means if you locked in your mortgage a few years ago, your renewal rate could be significantly higher now.

Tariffs are also playing a role—raising the cost of construction materials, appliances, and other key goods. That's putting pressure on housing prices and operational costs for landlords and homeowners alike.

Then add in the general economic uncertainty. We've seen job market shifts, global supply chain disruptions, and tightening lending practices. All of this creates a ripple effect across the real estate industry—and right now, that ripple is hitting your wallet.

According to the latest Royal LePage consumer survey, 74% of homeowners who expect to renew their mortgage in the next year are worried about their ability to afford higher monthly payments. That's a staggering number and it reflects what I'm hearing from clients every day.

Fixed vs. Variable: Which Is Right in 2025?

One of the biggest questions I get is whether to go with a fixed or variable mortgage rate in this environment. And the truth is—there's no one-size-fits-all answer. But let's break down what you need to consider.

Fixed Rate

This gives you stability. Your monthly payments won't change, which is a huge benefit if you're working with a tight budget or can't risk a surprise rate hike. Many people feel safer with a fixed rate right now because it locks in the payment and lets them plan ahead.

Variable Rate

This is more of a gamble, but it can pay off. If interest rates begin to drop—as some economists predict later in 2025—you could benefit from lower payments. However, you'll need to be financially and mentally prepared for the ups and downs that come with it.

I talk more about this in my video:

🎥 Watch: Navigating Mortgage Renewals in Uncertain Times

In the video, I walk through a few example scenarios and explain how to think about your mortgage choices depending on your income, goals, and risk tolerance. It's worth watching if you're trying to make a decision right now.

Don't Just Accept the Bank's First Offer

Here's the part I can't stress enough: you don't have to accept the first renewal offer your lender sends you. In fact, doing so could cost you thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage.

Start shopping around at least 120 days before your renewal date. That gives you time to compare offers from other banks or credit unions, or to work with a mortgage broker who can help find more competitive rates.

You should also be negotiating. Ask your lender to match a lower offer, or to throw in extras like free appraisal fees or flexible prepayment options. They want to keep your business, and most of the time, they can do better than their initial quote.

I've helped many clients prepare for renewal calls by reviewing their options and even jumping on the call with them when needed. If you're not sure where to start, book a quick 15-minute consultation and we'll go over your options together. Sometimes just a few smart moves can significantly reduce your monthly payments.

Key Things to Consider Before Your Renewal

Whether this is your first time renewing or you've done this before, the landscape has changed in 2025. Here's what to keep top of mind:

  • Start Early: Don't wait until the last minute. Give yourself at least 3–4 months to prepare.
  • Compare Fixed and Variable Rates: Rates have fluctuated wildly the past two years. Take time to weigh the pros and cons based on your financial goals.
  • Know Your Penalties: If you're thinking about switching lenders or breaking your mortgage early to lock in a better rate, make sure you understand your payout penalties.
  • Review Your Budget: With inflation still high, reassess what you can realistically afford. It might be time to tweak your budget or pay down other debts.
  • Consider Blended Options: Some lenders now offer hybrid or blended rates that combine features of both fixed and variable options. These can offer flexibility if you're not sure what direction the economy is headed.

If You're Buying for the First Time...

If you're not renewing but buying for the first time, the current market can feel intimidating—but education is everything. That's why I recommend starting with the First Time Home Buyers Course. It walks you through all the key stages of buying a home—from securing financing to closing the deal—and it's updated for current market realities.

Understanding your mortgage options from the start puts you in a stronger position to make smart, confident choices. And if you're still unsure about how to apply what you've learned to your personal situation, that's where a quick chat with me comes in.

Let's Talk About Your Mortgage Plan

Mortgage renewals aren't just about rates—they're about your long-term financial plan. Don't let inflation, market fear, or pressure from the bank rush your decision. The best thing you can do is take the time to understand your options and make a move that protects your home and your future.

Start the First Time Home Buyers Course

📞 Book a 15-minute Consultation with Me

Your mortgage doesn't have to be a burden—it can be a tool. Let's make sure it's working for you.

Ready to Plan Your Financial Success?

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