Why Canadians Are Leaving: The Housing Exodus and Mortgage Stress

By Alex McFadyen, Mortgage Broker at Flow Mortgage Co. | Published December 18, 2025 | Updated April 8, 2026

Are Canadians Really Leaving the Country Over Housing Costs?

106,134 people emigrated from Canada in 2024. That is the highest annual total since Statistics Canada started tracking this data series in 1967, according to reporting from Narcity and Coldwell Banker's analysis. In the first six months of 2025 alone, another 54,530 people departed. Net emigration reached 65,372 in 2024-25, the highest in the 50-year data series.

And then something even more startling happened. Canada's population actually shrank. As of January 1, 2026, the country had 41,472,081 residents, a decrease of roughly 102,000 from the start of 2025. That is the first annual net population decline since Confederation.

This is not just anecdotal frustration at coffee shop conversations. This is people voting with their feet.

We sat down with Ron Butler from the Angry Mortgage Podcast to dig into what is actually driving this. His take: housing unaffordability is the headline, but it is really the accumulation of housing costs, stagnant real wages, rising interest rates, and a cost of living that has outpaced income growth for a decade.

Which Provinces Are Losing the Most People?

Not all provinces bleed equally. Ontario accounted for 47% of all emigration in the first half of 2025, according to Coldwell Banker's analysis of Statistics Canada data. Ontario makes up about 39% of the national population, so the province is punching well above its weight in outflows.

British Columbia tells an even sharper story. The province represents 13.7% of Canada's population but accounted for 22% of all emigration in the same period. That means British Columbians are 61% more likely to leave the country than the average Canadian. Vancouver's housing costs have been unaffordable for most locals for years. Now it is showing up in who actually stays.

Meanwhile, Alberta continues to gain people through interprovincial migration. This pattern matters: the provinces losing residents are the expensive ones. The provinces gaining them are the affordable ones. Inside Canada, the market is correcting itself through mobility. The concerning part is the people leaving Canada entirely.

Related: Canadian Housing Market 2026: Where to Buy and Where to Pause

What Is Actually Making Canada Unaffordable?

It is not just one thing. Three forces are hitting at once.

Housing Prices That Outpace Incomes

The national affordability ratio sits around 9:1, meaning the average home costs nine times the median household income. In Toronto and Vancouver, that ratio stretches past 12:1. For comparison, the traditionally "healthy" ratio that financial planners reference is 3-4:1. Canada has not been near that number in major cities for over a decade.

CREA reported the national average home price at $663,828 in February 2026. The median household income in Canada is roughly $75,000. That math does not work without significant savings, parental help, or a partner who also earns well.

Related: House Rich, Cash Poor: The Hidden Cost of Homeownership

How Much Has the Mortgage Renewal Wave Hit Budgets?

CMHC's 2026 analysis shows that 1.2 million fixed-rate mortgages renewed in 2025, with another 980,000 coming in 2026. Most of these homeowners locked in at pandemic-era rates between 1.5% and 2.5%. They are renewing into a market where 5-year fixed rates sit at 3.84-4.09%.

That rate gap translates to real money. On a $500,000 mortgage with 22 years remaining:

About 10% of variable-rate, fixed-payment holders face increases exceeding 40%, according to CMHC. Toronto's mortgage arrears rate has more than quadrupled from post-pandemic lows. This is real financial pain spreading across the country.

Related: Mortgage Renewal 2026: What Canadian Homeowners Need to Know

Inflation Beyond Housing

Housing is the biggest line item, but everything else has gotten more expensive too. Groceries, fuel, insurance, childcare. When your mortgage payment jumps $500/month at the same time your grocery bill climbs $200/month and your car insurance goes up $80/month, the cumulative effect is brutal. It does not matter that inflation has "moderated." The prices never came back down. They just stopped rising as fast.

What Did Ron Butler Say About the Root Cause?

Ron Butler's argument boils down to a structural supply failure. Canada has been adding population faster than it builds housing. Immigration targets, while economically beneficial, were not matched with the infrastructure to house new arrivals. Zoning restrictions in municipalities slow down construction. Approval timelines for new developments stretch for years.

His view: until Canada builds dramatically more housing at every level (not just luxury condos, but purpose-built rentals, affordable townhouses, and missing middle housing), prices will remain disconnected from incomes. Rate cuts help on the margins. They do not fix a supply deficit that has been building for 20 years.

I agree with most of that analysis. Where I add context is on the mortgage side: the stress test, while protective, also creates a ceiling on purchasing power that forces buyers into smaller units or further-out locations. It is a safety mechanism that has real costs for individual families.

Related: The Developer Bailout Question: Is It the Answer to Canada's Housing Supply?

Does Emigration Actually Affect the Housing Market?

Less than you might think. Even with 106,134 people leaving in 2024, the underlying demand dynamics remain strong. The people who leave tend to be younger, mobile professionals. The people who stay, including millions of existing homeowners and new permanent residents, still drive demand in most markets.

Where emigration matters more is in the talent drain. When a 30-year-old engineer in Mississauga takes a job in Seattle because she cannot see a path to owning a home, that is a mortgage that was never written, property taxes that were never paid, and a local economy that lost a high earner. Multiply that by tens of thousands and you start to see a secondary economic cost beyond the housing market itself.

The interprovincial migration story is more impactful for housing. People moving from Ontario and B.C. to Alberta and the Maritimes are reshaping which markets grow and which stagnate. This redistribution is the market doing what policy has failed to do: moving demand toward where housing is more available.

What Can First-Time Buyers Do Right Now?

If you are a first-time buyer feeling the squeeze, you have more tools available than most people realize.

Stack your FHSA and HBP. The First Home Savings Account gives you $8,000/year in tax-deductible contributions, up to $40,000 lifetime. The Home Buyers' Plan lets you pull $60,000 from your RRSP. A couple can assemble up to $200,000 in down payment capital through these two programs alone.

Look at markets that match your income. If your household earns $100,000, your maximum purchase price under the stress test is roughly $450,000. That buys very little in Toronto. In Edmonton, it buys a detached home. In Moncton, it buys a large home with cash left over. The market you choose matters more than the rate you get.

Use the 30-year amortization. First-time buyers on new builds can now stretch to 30 years instead of 25. On a $400,000 mortgage at 4%, that drops your monthly payment from $2,103 to $1,900. That $200/month difference can be the margin between qualifying and not.

Related: Where to Buy (and Where to Pause) in 2026

Related: OSFI's New Rental Property Rule for Canadian Investors

What Should Homeowners Facing Renewal Stress Do?

If your renewal is coming up and the numbers scare you, start working on this now, not when the bank sends your renewal letter.

Talk to a broker 9-12 months before renewal. Your bank's first offer is almost never their best. A broker can show you what 30+ lenders are offering and negotiate on your behalf.

Consider extending your amortization. If you are staying with your current lender at renewal, you may be able to push your amortization back to 25 or even 30 years to reduce monthly payments. You pay more interest overall, but it keeps cash flow manageable during a tight period.

Consolidate expensive debt. If you are carrying credit card balances at 20%, rolling that into your mortgage at 4% through a refinance can free up hundreds per month. The math works, as long as you do not run the cards back up.

Explore a HELOC for flexibility. If you have equity, a Home Equity Line of Credit gives you a safety net without committing to a lump-sum loan. Just be aware: HELOC rates are variable and tied to prime.

Related: HELOC Debt in Canada: The Surge and Your Options

Related: The 2026 Mortgage Payment Spike

What Actually Needs to Change?

More housing. That is the short answer and the long answer.

Canada needs to streamline zoning and approvals at the municipal level. Purpose-built rental construction needs incentives that actually move the needle. The "missing middle" (townhouses, duplexes, low-rise apartments) needs to become the default, not a special exception requiring three years of public hearings.

Rate cuts have helped on the margin. The Bank of Canada dropping from 5% to 2.25% has made mortgages more affordable. But rates alone cannot fix a supply problem. Building 200,000 new units a year when demand requires 400,000+ means the gap just keeps widening.

Until supply catches demand, some Canadians will keep leaving. The question is whether the pace accelerates or whether 2024's record becomes the ceiling.

Related: Canada's 2025 Budget and Real Estate Plans

Bottom Line

The exodus is real. 106,134 people left Canada in 2024. The population shrank for the first time since Confederation. Housing costs, mortgage payment shock, and the broader cost of living are driving people out of provinces and out of the country.

But leaving is not the only option. Interprovincial migration to affordable markets, stacking first-time buyer programs, working with a broker to find the best renewal terms: these are practical steps you can take without packing a suitcase.

The structural problems will take years to fix. Your personal mortgage strategy does not have to wait that long.

FAQ

How many Canadians left the country in 2024?

106,134, according to Statistics Canada. That is the highest annual emigration total since the data series began in 1967. In the first half of 2025 alone, another 54,530 departed.

Is Canada's population actually shrinking?

Yes. Canada's population stood at 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026, a decrease of about 102,000 from the start of 2025. This is the first annual net population decline since Confederation.

Which provinces are losing the most people to emigration?

Ontario accounted for 47% of all emigration in H1 2025, exceeding its 39% population share. British Columbia represented 22% of emigration despite being just 13.7% of the population. B.C. residents are 61% more likely to leave than the average Canadian.

What is the average home price in Canada in 2026?

CREA reported $663,828 nationally in February 2026. The forecast for the full year is $698,881. Prices range from under $400,000 in Saskatchewan to over $1.5M for detached homes in Toronto and Vancouver.

How much will my mortgage payment increase at renewal in 2026?

CMHC estimates an average increase of roughly 20% for five-year fixed borrowers. A $500,000 mortgage locked at 2% renewing at 4% jumps about $510/month. About 10% of variable-rate fixed-payment holders face increases above 40%.

Are there strategies to reduce mortgage stress without leaving Canada?

Yes. Relocate interprovincially to more affordable markets. Extend your amortization at renewal to reduce payments. Consolidate high-interest debt into your mortgage. Use a broker to access rates from dozens of lenders. Stack FHSA + HBP for first-time purchases.

Does emigration affect the Canadian housing market?

The direct impact is limited. Even with record emigration, underlying demand from existing residents and demographic factors keeps most housing markets supported. The bigger housing market factors remain interest rates, supply shortages, and interprovincial migration patterns.